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The data model that predicted a blue wave in 2018 is pedicting a Trump loss in Tis The Season To Be Quarantined 2020 Principal Life Merry Christmas shirt . The reason is due to Trump’s unpopularity and disapproval numbers, particularly in the swing states. Predicting the outcome of an election that’s a year and four months off is not easy. Any number of things could happen between now and then that either makes Trump not run (he is pretty old), has him lose, win by electoral college alone again, or even bring a large victory. Polls are not absolutes.