The study in question is a Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt by economist David Romer. Romer found that NFL teams would be better off going for it on fourth down way less often than they should. Romer discovered that the payoffs (points scored) for going for it on fourth down even deep in your own territory are are greater than punting the ball away to your opponent, provided the distance to go is sufficiently short. Romer found that ever as far back as your own ten yard line, going for it on 4th and 3 produces the exact same likelihood of scoring points (and having points scored on you) as punting the ball away. If it’s less than that distance, a team is better off by going for it. When just outside field goal range (opponent’s 40 or so), is team is better off by going for it as far back as 4th and 8. Romer’s math checks out. But the question remains of why hasn’t anyone at the Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt of NFL level has adopted it, or really anyone at all outside of Kevin Kelley. Romer looks at the NFL so there shouldn’t be any special teams issues you describe. I have two theories as to why Romer’s theory hasn’t been adopted (in addition to commenting about coaches I’m also an economist). First is that coaching is such a tight-knit community, coaches aren’t willing to hire someone radically different (which helps explains why the same bad college and NFL assistants seem to get hired year after year). The second is loss aversion. If a new coach goes for it on fourth down on their own 10 yard line and makes it, the positive effect is not particularly strong. But if a Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt goes for it on their own 10 and doesn’t make it, fans will lose their minds.
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Maybe I should have specified “this is an Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt -in-cheek example of how some irresponsible people use misrepresented statistics to manipulate their audience.” I thought rolling with the structure of the joke was more important than absolute precision. But I’m new to Reddit, so I guess I miscalculated. Ha. Besides, if you want to be serious about it, all your arguments hinge on an analysis passing through a pool of skeptical and diligent gatekeepers before being presented as fact. In today’s political environment, that’s. . . not what’s happening. People can look at the most gobsmackingly obviously wrongheaded numbers and only see evidence that supports their preconceived opinions. No one looks too hard at “facts” that feel true. Perhaps I should have said, “This shit is why it’s so easy for people to lie to themselves with statistics.” And this is a problem in academic circles too! There’s a whole wave of people highlighting the systemic biases in academic publishing. P-hacking, non-dissemination of negative results, the dearth of confirmation studies due to prestige chasing, the fact that so many high profile articles can’t be confirmed when someone does bother to try, etc. The Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt Tower isn’t free of those willing to massage the numbers into giving the desired impression to a cursory observer. I know we need to defend the integrity of the Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt process in this era of willful and malicious ignorance, but refusing to acknowledge the motes in our own eyes ain’t the Spice World 2019 Sweatshirt to go about it, folks.